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NFL Expert Picks: Vikings Home Underdogs Against Cowboys in Week 11

The Minnesota Vikings and the Dallas Cowboys were on opposite sides of major comebacks last week.

The Vikings battled back from a 17-point deficit to earn a 33-30 overtime victory against Buffalo. The Cowboys, meanwhile, saw their 14-point lead slip away against Green Bay before they fell in overtime, 31-28.

Minnesota (8-1) hosts Dallas (6-3) at 3:25 p.m. (CT) Sunday in a pivotal NFC clash. The Vikings have won seven consecutive games. The Cowboys will look to bounce back after having their two-game win streak snapped.

Minnesota and Dallas have met 33 times, with the Cowboys holding an 18-15 advantage in the series. The Vikings have lost four of their past five games against the Cowboys since the 2013 season, including the past two matchups: 31-28 in 2020 and 20-16 last season.

Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:

Look back at photos over the course of time featuring games between the Vikings and the Cowboys.

Cowboys 24, Vikings 20 — Gregg Rosenthal,

Have the Cowboys taken a step back on defense since Dak Prescott returned from injury or are they just facing better opponents? Much like the NFC East rival Eagles, they are susceptible against the run. That's bad news with Dalvin Cook coming up, buoyed by a Vikings tackle combination that could mitigate the Cowboys pass rush. I still see Dallas as a more complete team with more playmakers overall, even if Minnesota's late-game magic could power the sun.

Vikings 30, Cowboys 26 — Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

The Vikings are home after a miraculous victory over the Bills last week when they rallied from 17 down late. The Cowboys are on the road for a second straight week after blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in losing to the Packers. The Cowboys had major coverage issues last week, which Justin Jefferson will exploit. Look for the Vikings to keep it going.

Cowboys 30, Vikings 28 — Staff, Bleacher Report

In Week 10, the Minnesota Vikings beat the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in overtime — quite possibly the game of the year because of the twists and turns in that contest. Yet the Vikings come home as slight home underdogs in a matchup with the Dallas Cowboys, who lost to a struggling Green Bay Packers squad last week.

Vikings 24, Cowboys 21 — Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News

The Vikings are coming off a long emotional road overtime win. The Cowboys are coming off a long emotional road overtime loss. That seems like a cocktail for a letdown and a rebound. Minnesota is feeling it in close games this season and can use power running effectively with Dalvin Cook again. The Cowboys secondary will [struggle], giving up more big plays to Justin Jefferson. Dallas doesn't have the same firepower answer, especially when Dak Prescott isn't playing as consistently well as Kirk Cousins.

Cowboys 30, Vikings 28 — Bill Bender, Sporting News

The Cowboys are favored against Minnesota, which continues to produce close-game victories. Kirk Cousins is 2-8 lifetime against Dallas, and that includes a 1-2 mark with Minnesota. Still, the strong running game with Dalvin Cook and connection with Justin Jefferson has gone a long way this season. All that said, the fact Dallas is favored makes us think Dak Prescott will bounce back on the road.

Cowboys 24, Vikings 17 — Michael David Smith, Pro Football Network

The Vikings have the better record, but the Cowboys are the better team. They'll prove it in Minnesota.


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Vikings 30, Cowboys 27 — Mike Florio, Pro Football Network

The Vikings have become the ultimate find-a-way team for 2022.

Pre-game win probabilities: Vikings 54% —

2 of 5 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB

2 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report

6 of 10 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic