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NFL Expert Picks: Tight Battle Predicted for Vikings at Chargers in Week 8

Tonight when the Vikings (3-3) take on the Chargers (4-3) in Los Angeles, Kevin O'Connell and Jim Harbaugh will face each other for the first time as head coaches. The matchup will also serve as the first-ever meeting on Thursday night between the two franchises.

Playing on Thursday nights hasn't always been kind to Minnesota, though, especially on the road. Despite possessing an 8-13 record all-time on Thursdays as a franchise, the Vikings have won on the road only once – a 21-10 victory at Dallas on Oct. 26, 1978, the year the NFL began playing games on Thursday nights. Since then, Minnesota has dropped eight consecutive games in such situations (23-22 at Buffalo in 1982, 9-7 at Green Bay in 2006, 14-9 at New Orleans in 2010, 42-10 at Green Bay in 2014, 23-20 at Arizona in 2015, 38-31 at the Rams in 2018, 34-28 at Philadelphia in 2023 and 30-20 at the Rams in 2024).

The Chargers are 10-11 all-time on Thursdays but have lost three of their past four in such games. Prior to their most recent home victory on Thursday Night Football – a 34-27 win against Denver last season – the last home Chargers win on a Thursday happened in 2016 (also against the Broncos in the final TNF game held in San Diego).

Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:

Chargers 28, Vikings 23 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

It will once again be Carson Wentz at quarterback for the Vikings with J.J. McCarthy still not healed from his high ankle sprain. Wentz has highs and lows in a game that end up usually leveling out. Justin Herbert is coming off a nice passing game last week, but he will be tested against the Brian Flores defense. Even so, I think he will make enough plays to win it, and the Chargers will turn over Wentz a few times.

Chargers 24, Vikings 21 – Bill Bender, Sporting News

Carson Wentz has split the last four starts in [J.J. McCarthy's] place. The Chargers are 2-2 at home, but they have given up 27 or more points the last three weeks. This is a toss-up game.

Chargers 24, Vikings 20 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News

The Vikings defense is tough on the run, but the Chargers will be fine with aggressive passing downfield again at home with Justin Herbert while Harbaugh and [Defensive Coordinator Jesse] Minter find some get-well defense [against] Carson Wentz.

3 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report

Bleacher Report analysis by Gary Davenport:

This is a coin-flip, a battle of two teams trying to stay relevant in tough divisions. But the Chargers aren't close to the same team they were a month ago, and they won't be until Justin Herbert's tackles aren't wearing matador capes. Vikings win outright.

Bleacher Report analysis by Wes O'Donnell:

A banged-up Carson Wentz is back under center for Minnesota on a short week against a banged-up Chargers team that has run out of energy. Something's got to give.

Jim Harbaugh's squad is 1-3 since its 3-0 start, with the lone victory a two-point escape against the inept Dolphins.

I don't expect anything pretty from either side here. Home teams are 5-2 this season on Thursday Night Football. If there's a time for Harbaugh and Herbert to overcome the injuries and put together something resembling their early-season form, I'll bank on this as the game.

1 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB

2 of 10 experts (1 of 11 total had not submitted) pick the Vikings, ESPN

3 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, USA Today

Coaches' connections to California

O'Connell and Harbaugh are no strangers to The Golden State, better known as California.

The head coaches for the Vikings and Chargers, respectively, both attended California high schools (O'Connell at La Costa Canyon in Carlsbad; Harbaugh at Palo Alto). They also both spent significant time in San Diego, San Francisco and Los Angeles, as mapped out below:

O'Connell played quarterback at San Diego State University (2003-07) and was briefly signed to the San Diego Chargers practice squad in 2012 before getting released to close his five-year NFL playing career. In 2016, O'Connell oversaw special projects in San Francisco with the 49ers and later spent two seasons as the Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator (2020-2021) before coming to Minnesota.

San Diego was the fourth stop of Harbaugh's 14-year NFL playing career, where the former quarterback spent two seasons (1999-2000). He then served as the head coach for the University of San Diego (2004-06), Stanford (2007-10) and the 49ers (2011-14) before returning to the NFL a decade later as the Los Angeles Chargers head coach in 2024.

Additionally, Harbaugh started his NFL coaching career in California as the quarterbacks coach for the Oakland Raiders (2002-03).

Series Notes

The Vikings and Chargers have met 15 times in their history, with Minnesota holding a slim 8-7 lead in the series. The two franchises split the first 12 meetings between 1971 and 2015 when the Chargers were located in San Diego, but Minnesota has claimed two of the past three matchups since the Chargers made the move to Los Angeles.

The Vikings won consecutive games against the Chargers in Los Angeles in 2019 (a 39-10 victory) and 2021 (a 27-20 victory), but the Chargers took the most recent meeting in 2023 in Minnesota 28-24. The only other time Minnesota has won against the Chargers on the road occurred in 1981, a 33-31 victory in San Diego.

In Minnesota's history of playing road games as a franchise, there are three current teams the Vikings have an even series with: the Chargers and Titans/Oilers (each tied 3-3) and the Buccaneers (tied 14-14). Incredibly, not only do the Vikings have an exact series split all-time on the road against the Chargers and Titans/Oilers, both series are separated by just a single point. Minnesota has outscored the Chargers 158-157 while the Titans/Oilers have outscored the Vikings 118-117. Despite the even series for Minnesota when visiting Tampa Bay, the point differential is 13 points in favor of the Vikings.

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