It's officially that time of year: the closing of the NFL trade deadline and the start of the season's second half.
This year's race is extremely tight. Entering Week 10, 18 teams have an even or winning record, with seven more needing just two or three wins to reach the .500 mark. Two of those teams – the Vikings (the only team in the NFL with a .500 record at 4-4) and the Ravens (who join Houston as the only AFC teams with a 3-5 record) will determine which shade of purple will prevail on Sunday when Minnesota hosts Baltimore at noon (CT) at U.S. Bank Stadium.
For Vikings and Ravens fans, the return of their franchise quarterbacks last week was a welcome sight. Both J.J. McCarthy (high-ankle sprain) and Lamar Jackson (hamstring), respectively, missed more than a month with their injuries, but quickly got to work in their first games back.
Although he had only 143 yards on 14-of-25 passing, McCarthy threw two touchdowns and added another on the ground to lead Minnesota to a 27-24 upset victory at Detroit. Jackson, meanwhile, went 18-of-23 passing for 204 yards and threw four touchdowns in a dominant 28-6 Ravens victory at Miami on Thursday Night Football. Jackson's performance also earned him AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for Week 9.
When both quarterbacks take the field Sunday, it'll not only mark the first meeting between the two, it'll be McCarthy's first career start against an AFC opponent and Jackson's first trip to U.S. Bank Stadium. Jackson will make his 100th regular-season start.
McCarthy will also not only look to keep Minnesota's perfect record against Baltimore at home (2-0) intact, he'll try to add to an 8-3 record that NFC North teams have against the AFC North this season. Jackson will attempt to extend an impressive streak of his own, as the Ravens QB is 24-3 as a starter against NFC teams in his career.
Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:
Ravens 27, Vikings 20 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
Both of these teams got much-needed victories last week with the Vikings really impressing in beating the Lions on the road. The Ravens came to life at Miami, and I think that will carry over here. [Vikings Defensive Coordinator] Brian Flores will challenge Lamar Jackson in a big way with his schemes, but I think Jackson will get the best of him with his legs and his arm. Ravens take it.
Ravens 26, Vikings 24 – Bill Bender, Sporting News
Baltimore is looking to get back in the AFC North race. Lamar Jackson's return added to the running game, but the defense has allowed just 11 points per game since the bye week. J.J. McCarthy looked good in his return, too, and Minnesota will be a tough out at home. This should be the best game of the early slate.
Ravens 27, Vikings 24 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News
Lamar Jackson is back to make the Ravens offense sizzle, and they have found some defensive answers. J.J. McCarthy provided a similar spark to the Vikings. This should be a high-scoring game with plenty of purple points. Baltimore's sudden steadiness plus Minnesota's inconsistency leads to a predictable result.
0 of 5 experts pick the Vikings, NFL.com
Analysis from NFL.com's Brooke Cersosimo:
The Vikings are 3-4 against the Ravens all time. What's strange is this: In the three seasons Minnesota won, it made the NFC Championship Game. In the four seasons it lost, its head coach was fired. Now, I see no scenario where Kevin O'Connell is looking for work any time soon. The other outcome also feels pretty unlikely at this juncture, too. That said, the 4-4 Vikings are coming off a promising outing in which the defense dominated up front and J.J. McCarthy made enough plays to secure a division win over Detroit. McCarthy now runs into a Ravens defense that's been on a heater since Week 6, allowing just 13 points per game, second in the NFL in that span, after giving up 35.4 in Weeks 1-5. The good news for the young QB is Baltimore has recorded just 11 sacks, so he should have time to work in the pocket and find Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The Vikings are taking steps in the right direction, and Brian Flores' defense made a big statement last week with the return of Andrew Van Ginkel, applying constant pressure on Jared Goff. Unfortunately, Goff is a much different QB than two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, the ultimate chess piece. Is it possible Minnesota's physical, blitz-heavy front stalls Baltimore's pass game? Yes. Is it also possible that that defense executes its plan well, yet Jackson – joined by future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry in the backfield – still takes over the game? Yes.
2 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report
Bleacher Report analysis by Kris Knox:
I hate the hook here because this feels like the sort of game Baltimore might win with a walk-off field goal. The Ravens are on the road, their defense is getting better but still not great, and Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy can create some mismatches. However, Lamar Jackson is healthy, so I have to back the Ravens against a QB with three career starts.
Bleacher Report analysis by Brent Sobleski:
The Ravens are favored as the visiting team, and they should be. With Lamar Jackson in the lineup, this squad has a chance to ascend quickly. However, the Vikings also have their starting quarterback back in the lineup. Granted, J.J. McCarthy isn't anywhere near Jackson's level.
At the same time, Minnesota looked like a different team against the Detroit Lions last weekend after suffering losses during the previous two contests. Expect Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores to attack Jackson and a weakened offensive line to at least disrupt the Ravens offense and give Minnesota a chance.
3 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB
3 of 10 experts (1 of 11 total had not submitted) pick the Vikings, ESPN
2 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic
Thought from The Athletic's J.J. Bailey:
What do we say to the God of Death? One of these teams will say, "Not today."
It's a shame that Baltimore and Minnesota have to face each other at this point, since they are both in the midst of heroic campaigns to stave off early elimination.
Minnesota's situation seems more desperate, since even though they pulled off a miracle road upset of the Lions, they're still last in their division. But in the process of stunning Detroit, they also returned to their idealized selves, leaning into a complex and terrifying defense and minimizing what's asked of J.J. McCarthy.
The theory at the outset of the season was that if the defense is that smothering, and the rest of the team is that good, McCarthy needs to make four or five high-level throws for the team to win. In Minnesota's two victories with him under center, that's precisely how it worked. This is normally where one would question whether the defense can do that against a team like Baltimore, but after Detroit, the answer is unequivocally yes. A million miles lie between "can" and "will," but listening to the Vikings talk, they certainly believe they rediscovered their top defensive gear.
But McCarthy's required handful of throws is another matter. The Ravens defense is not the performance-enhancing drug for quarterbacks it was to begin the year, evidenced by them holding Miami to -.16 EPA per pass and never looking particularly bothered by the Dolphins complex, quick-fire offense. They'll still have to contend with Justin Jefferson, who can make any bad throw a good one, but McCarthy has not looked like he's ready to operate without bumpers, so game planning for the Vikings attack should be straightforward.
If Jackson (who is again playing MVP football) can establish any semblance of a passing game, it'll free Derrick Henry up to punish Minnesota's (relatively) weak run defense. As the Dolphins just learned, once Henry gets going, it's like trying to tackle a particularly violent ice cream truck, so preventing that has to be first priority. Otherwise, they'll need more from McCarthy than just a few good throws, and he's yet to show he can fill that order.
0 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, USA Today
Series Notes
The Vikings and Ravens have only met seven times in their history, which is the second-fewest games played by any NFL opponent against Minnesota in its franchise's history. The Texans have the fewest games played against the Vikings at six.
Although Baltimore holds a 4-3 lead in the series, the Ravens have never won in Minnesota in two trips. The Vikings defeated the Ravens 33-31 in 2009 and 24-16 in 2017. Baltimore joins Cincinnati (0-7) and Houston (0-3) as the only current NFL teams without a win in Minnesota.
The Vikings and Ravens have split the past four matchups, with both of Baltimore's victories coming down to the wire. In 2013, the Vikings and Ravens combined for five touchdowns in the game's final 125 seconds, with Baltimore winning 29-26. In the most recent matchup in 2021, the Ravens overcame a 14-point deficit in the third quarter and took a 31-24 lead with 3:29 remaining in the fourth quarter. Minnesota was able to force overtime with a touchdown from Kirk Cousins to Adam Thielen with 1:03 remaining, but the Ravens got a 36-yard field goal from Justin Tucker with 16 seconds left in overtime to seal the 34-31 victory.
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