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NFL Expert Picks: Opinions Divided for Vikings vs. Commanders in Week 14

The NFL is full of traditions. One of the more common ones is when teams play three consecutive games in a season within their divisions.

The likelihood of a team having three consecutive games against teams from one division can be extremely rare.

When the Minnesota Vikings play their next three games – starting with a home matchup against Washington on Sunday, followed by back-to-back road games at Dallas and the New York Giants – it'll be just the second time in team history for Minnesota to play three consecutive contests against NFC East opponents (since 1970 when the division got its current name following the merger).

The only other time it has occurred was in 1973. Minnesota faced the same three teams and went 3-0; the Vikings defeated the Giants 31-7 in Week 14 to close the regular season with a 12-2 record. Minnesota then hosted Washington in the Divisional Round, winning 27-20, before defeating the Cowboys in Dallas 27-10 to advance to Super Bowl VIII, where the Vikings fell to Miami 24-7.

Although the winner of Sunday's matchup between the Vikings (4-8) and Commanders (3-9) will officially eliminate the other one from playoff contention, there are some positives to the outcome. For starters, one team's recent losing streak (Minnesota has lost four consecutive games while Washington has dropped seven straight) will get snapped. Another is the win could serve as a needed spark to finish the season – which could in turn create some chaos for those still fighting for a postseason spot.

Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:

Vikings 24, Commanders 17 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

These two are among the biggest disappointments this season. The Vikings will have J.J. McCarthy back at quarterback. The Vikings have the better defense, which will be the difference here.

Commanders 22, Vikings 19 – Bill Bender, Sporting News

It's almost an impossible game to pick without clarity on the quarterback situations. Jayden Daniels (elbow) could return, though Marcus Mariota has played well enough in back-to-back overtime losses to the Dolphins and Broncos. Minnesota QBs have averaged 135.8 passing yards through a four-game losing streak. Washington finally breaks a seven-game losing streak.

Commanders 24, Vikings 20 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News

The Washington Commanders are expecting to get Jayden Daniels back as they are on the brink of playoff elimination in the NFC East. The Vikings should have J.J. McCarthy back, but that doesn't do much to improve their passing game or offense as a whole.

1 of 5 experts pick the Vikings, NFL.com

Analysis from NFL.com's Tom Blair:

Something is (probably) going to happen this Sunday that has happened just once since Oct. 6: Washington or Minnesota is going to win a game. I'm making the somewhat vibes-based choice to back the group that has shown far more fight lately. Over the past four weeks, the Vikings have been outscored by a combined 53 points, the worst differential in the NFL in that span, translating to a gulf of nearly two touchdowns per game. The Commanders mark since Week 10 (-26) isn't necessarily all that hot, either, but it's much further in the right direction, and it reflects a pair of very narrow losses to one middling opponent (Miami) and one contender (Denver). None of the units involved in this game have been great, but two have been respectable: Washington's offense (12th in EPA per play) and Minnesota's defense (11th in EPA per play). If the Vikings quarterback situation didn't scare me so much, I might be tempted to go with the more potent defense at home. Whether Jayden Daniels is back or Marcus Mariota gets another start, I feel far more confident placing my faith in either of them than J.J. McCarthy, returning to the helm of the NFL's second-worst passing attack in EPA per dropback.

2 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report

Bleacher Report analysis by Brad Gagnon:

The Commanders could have trouble battling back from a second consecutive crushing overtime loss to all but end their season. The Vikings are a mess, too, but they're back at home where they have put up fights against Philadelphia, Baltimore and Chicago in their last three outings. Of course, keep an eye on the statuses of both teams' quarterbacks here.

Bleacher Report analysis by Wes O'Donnell:

I do not care that the Vikings defense can perform at an elite level at times. Laying points, even at home simply ain't going to happen. The Commanders may even get Jayden Daniels back. Taking the points regardless because Washington will win outright.

4 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB

0 of 10 experts (1 of 11 total had not submitted) pick the Vikings, ESPN

2 of 5 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic

0 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, USA Today

Series Notes

The Vikings and Commanders have met 28 times in their history (including playoffs), with Minnesota holding a slight 15-13 advantage in the series. Minnesota has won three consecutive games against Washington and five of its past six meetings dating back to the 2013 season. The last Washington victory over Minnesota occurred in 2016 (a 26-20 win).

The most recent matchup between the two teams occurred in Week 9 of the 2022 season. The game featured quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Taylor Heinicke facing their former teams (Cousins for the second time overall, but first as a visitor with the Vikings; Heinicke for the first time). It also marked the Vikings debut of TE T.J. Hockenson, who finished with nine catches for 70 yards. Despite trailing by 10 in the fourth quarter, the Vikings rallied to win 20-17.

When it comes to home games in the series, Minnesota has been red-hot, as it has won three straight games and four of its past five going back to the 1998 season. Washington's lone victory during that span came back in 2007 (a 32-21 win). Minnesota is 1-0 in the series at U.S. Bank Stadium, a 2019 game in which Cousins played Washington for the first time.

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