Division games in the NFL are like a boxing match or a UFC bout. It doesn't matter what the matchup is or the records going into it; anything can happen, and the later the rounds between the specific teams go, the higher the level of intrigue and intensity rises.
In the purple and gold corner, the Vikings (4-5) haven't won consecutive games yet this season, but are one of eight NFL teams and just three NFC squads with a perfect record in its division going into Week 11 (Tampa Bay is 2-0 in the NFC South while the Vikings and Packers are 2-0 and 1-0 in the North, respectively). This season also marks the second in franchise history in which the Vikings have a losing record through Week 10 but are unbeaten against division opponents, joining the 2021 team (Minnesota was also 4-5 that year and 1-0 in the division with a 19-17 victory against Detroit).
In the navy and orange corner, the Bears (6-3) have been one of the NFL's hottest teams, as Chicago has won six of its past seven after an 0-2 start to the season. A big credit for that goes to quarterback Caleb Williams, who has turned a complete-180 between his rookie and sophomore seasons. After leading the NFL in sacks taken last year with 68, Williams has only been dropped 14 times in 2025 (tied for the fourth-fewest among QBs with a minimum of 75 dropbacks while under pressure, per Pro Football Focus).
Williams has engineered four fourth-quarter comebacks this season, tied for the most in the NFL with Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield and Denver's Bo Nix. Three of Williams' rallies have occurred in road games. Williams also possesses the second-highest quarterback rating in the NFL this year (94.0) inside the final two minutes of either half.
Whether it's by a split decision at the end or an early TKO, the winner of Sunday's game will gain better footing in a crowded race for the division, which is fittingly nicknamed the "Black and Blue" division.
Before we get ready to rumble, let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:
Vikings 27, Bears 20 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
The Vikings need to get their offense going with J.J. McCarthy in this one. The Bears are 6-3 and have played well on offense, but the defense has been leaky at times. I also think the Vikings pass rush and blitzes will impact Caleb Williams into turnovers. Vikings take it.
Vikings 28, Bears 23 – Bill Bender, Sporting News
The Bears have pulled out dramatic fourth-quarter victories each of the last two weeks with Caleb Williams. Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy led a dramatic comeback against Chicago in Week 1 – but he has a 50.7% completion percentage in his last two starts. The Vikings make a stand late in desperation mode to stay afloat in the NFC North.
Bears 27, Vikings 24 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News
The Bears have won two in a row to get back into playoff position in the NFC with Caleb Williams starting to steady his play in Ben Johnson's offense. J.J. McCarthy doesn't have the same benefit of full Year 2 work, and it's showing with his inconsistency in Kevin O'Connell' s offense. Williams is in a groove deploying his many weapons better than McCarthy is.
4 of 5 experts pick the Vikings, NFL.com
Analysis from NFL.com's Tom Blair:
My first gut instinct said not to trust the Bears defense, which has been pushed around in recent weeks, including by the middling Giants attack in Week 10. My second gut instinct said, wait a second, the Bears offense has actually been the most reliable unit on either side lately, ranking fifth in EPA per play in the NFL since their Week 5 bye, per Next Gen Stats. Then my third gut instinct chimed in to remind me that the Vikings vulnerability against the run (they rank 20th in EPA per carry allowed) lines up perfectly against a particular strength of Chicago, which ranks third in the NFL in EPA per carry over the past five weeks. And so the great gut tie was broken. I am wary of J.J. McCarthy and Kevin O'Connell kicking it into gear, as well as the presence of an all-world receiver (Justin Jefferson) who would surely love to put last week's rare stinker firmly behind him. But I'm also wary of McCarthy in general, given how wildly his performances have varied this season, and you don't love to see that he's dealing with an injury to his throwing hand. Caleb Williams and Co. ride the run game to a third straight win.
2 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report
Bleacher Report analysis by Brad Gagnon:
It's not that hard to see the appeal of the Vikings here. Minnesota has won eight of the past nine matchups with the Bears, and Chicago has the look of a team just good enough to get blasted in the Wild Card Round by an actual contender.
However, this may well be that rarest of years when Chicago is actually better than Minnesota. Add in the Vikings issues offensively, and not only do the Bears cover but they also win outright.
Bleacher Report analysis by Wes O'Donnell:
The Bears can't keep winning games the way they have, and the Vikings defense is not the Giants or Bengals. Do I trust J.J. McCarthy? Do the Vikings trust J.J. McCarthy? I really don't know.
But I have an incredibly hard time accepting the Bears as potential winners in seven of their last eight games, choosing instead to look at that loss in Baltimore as something closer to reality even though the Vikings offense certainly isn't the Ravens.
I'll take this more as a reality check for Chicago and hope for mistake-free football from the Vikes to cover the home-field spread.
3 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB
7 of 11 experts pick the Vikings, ESPN
5 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic
Thought from The Athletic's J.J. Bailey:
Both of these teams are still a ways from legitimacy, but the rematch serves as a measuring stick for their budding offenses. J.J. McCarthy has the NFL's highest deep pass percentage (18.5 percent), and despite his flaws, has shown a knack for big throws when the movement demands them. The Bears secondary functions primarily as a getaway for receivers – somewhere they can find some space and not be bothered – so McCarthy can rifle the ball downfield with abandon.
Whether the Bears can keep pace comes down to Caleb Williams continuing to be Brian Flores' Moby Dick. Of the 47 dropbacks where Flores sent blitzers after Williams, the Vikings have managed to sack him just twice. The 4.3-percent sack rate is one-third of Williams' rate against all other opponents, and if he keeps it up, the Bears growing offensive confidence could keep them in the game.
They may not be ready for the big show, but a Week 11 game where both these teams have playoff stakes on the table is a pretty promising result for both.
6 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, USA Today
Series Notes
The Vikings and Bears have met 129 times in their history, with Minnesota holding a 69-58-2 lead in the series. The Vikings are 40-26 all-time when hosting Chicago, including a Bears win in the lone postseason meeting between the franchises after the 1994 regular season.
Minnesota has been red-hot against Chicago lately, with the Vikings winning eight of the past nine games going back to the 2020 season, including three straight. Chicago has fared better recently against the Vikings as the visitor, though. The Bears have won four of six games in Minnesota between 2018 and 2023, including three consecutive from 2018 to 2020. The Vikings won the most recent meeting that was held in Minnesota, rolling to a 30-12 victory on Monday Night Football in Week 15 of last season.
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