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NFL Expert Picks: Vikings Underdogs Against Bills in Week 10

Of the 14 NFL games this week, only one has two teams with winning records.

The Minnesota Vikings (7-1) visit the Buffalo Bills (6-2) at noon (CT) Sunday. The Vikings have won six consecutive games. The Bills had their four-game win streak snapped last Sunday with a 20-17 loss to the New York Jets.

Minnesota and Buffalo have met 14 times, with the Vikings holding an 8-6 edge in the series. The Vikings have lost four of their past five games against the Bills since the 2002 season, including the past two matchups: 17-16 in 2014 and 27-6 in 2018.

Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:

Bills 20, Vikings 17 — Gregg Rosenthal,

I made this prediction assuming Josh Allen is out with his elbow injury. Buffalo could be without multiple key players on Sunday. Von Miller's running mate, Greg Rousseau, is dealing with an ankle injury, and the statuses of several defenders are up in the air. Yet I still believe the Bills can win in a bounce-back game. Case Keenum can get rid of the ball fast and take the quick profits that Minnesota's defense gives up. Miller and the rest of Buffalo's defensive players will be up for the challenge of proving they can win a game on their own.

Bills 30, Vikings 20 — Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

This is the big game of the week. That could be trouble for Kirk Cousins, who hasn't played well in them. The Bills haven't looked great on offense in the last game and a half, but that will change here if Josh Allen can play. Look for the Bills to get back on track. They win it big.

Vikings 27, Bills 24 — Staff, Bleacher Report

Bettors should keep an eye on Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen's status for this matchup because his condition will significantly impact the spread.

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Allen has a UCL sprain (elbow sprain), and the team will monitor his progress at practice throughout the week with a focus on how well he can grip a football. Case Keenum would start against his former team if the big-armed signal-caller is inactive Sunday.

We probably won't know if Allen suits up until Friday at the earliest, so expect oddsmakers to move the line until the Bills make an announcement with clarification on their quarterback.

Whether Allen plays or not, most of our panelists took the Vikings because they're too good of a football team to give the Bills more than a field goal even if Buffalo's starting signal-caller takes the field at less than 100 percent.

Bills 34, Vikings 24 — Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News

The Vikings are feeling all that swag with Kirk Cousins delivering in Kevin O'Connell's offense. But their defense is teetering on leading to a second defeat for several games since Week 2 in Philadelphia. Josh Allen will fight through his elbow pain to raise his level of all-around play while his go-to wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, will have major revenge on his mind with replacement Justin Jefferson on the other side. The Vikings won't run enough early to attack the Bills, who can pick apart Patrick Peterson and their secondary.

Bills 31, Vikings 21 — Bill Bender, Sporting News

The Bills were mortal in a loss to the Jets in Week 9, and that should mean a refocused Josh Allen at home against the Vikings, who rank 27th in the league in passing defense (256.9). This is Stefon Diggs' first game against his former team, and he'll put on a show in front of the home crowd. Buffalo bounces back in style.

Bills 31, Vikings 17 — Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk

The status of Josh Allen's elbow may make me regret this pick, but as of right now I don't see the Vikings playing a competitive game against a Bills team that will be eager to rebound from last week's loss.

View photos of Vikings players during practice on Nov. 9 at the TCO Performance Center.

Vikings 24, Bills 20 — Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk

This pick is based on an educated guess that Josh Allen won't play, and on a belief that the Minnesota offense is finding its groove, thanks to the T.J. Hockenson trade.

Pre-game win probabilities: Vikings 38% —

1 of 8 experts pick the Vikings (1 expert didn't pick), ESPN

1 of 5 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB

5 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report

1 of 10 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic