The development of young quarterbacks is one of the most interesting subjects in sports.
In the meat of his weekly NFL column Tuesday, Ben Solak of ESPN digested Week 10 with an assessment of six young quarterbacks, all drafted within the first 12 picks in 2024 to step into franchise-leading roles.
Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix, Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix.
Although they will be linked forever because of concurrent entrances into the NFL, the half-dozen passers are on completely unique quarterback journeys, and the one we care most about is McCarthy.
You know, the 22-year-old who recently became a first-time father and just played his fourth NFL game after a season-long rehab for a knee injury in 2024 and a six-week stint on the sideline because of a high-ankle sprain earlier this year.
Here's the brunt of what Solak wrote about McCarthy:
For McCarthy, the difficulties are more excusable. In only his fourth career start, he once again looked comfortable on script but quickly spiraled out of control as the training wheels left the offense. On the season, McCarthy averages 0.18 EPA per dropback on the first two drives of games – drives that we can confidently say are scripted – and minus-0.03 on all other drives. His success rate drops from 47% to 35%.
I have no interest in writing anything concrete about McCarthy, as I wrote last week after the Vikings win over the Lions. He simply has not played enough football. The product so far is worrisome – high sack rate, high interception rate and a lengthy time to throw are all indicators of a young passer overwhelmed by NFL speed. Of the six quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2024 class, none has had a stretch as statistically poor or as visibly concerning as McCarthy this season. But we'll tread water on him for now.
Solak's evaluation of McCarthy is fair and serves as a reminder that patience for the position is powerful.
To add to his study of the second-year quarterbacks, here is a snapshot of how each of the six fared in their first four full starts (remember, performance separation can be affected by a range of facets, including but definitely not limited to coaching, play-calling, supporting casts, health and systematic fits).
- Williams (1st overall pick): 87-for-141 passing (61.7%), 216.5 total YPG, 3 TD & 4 INT, 16 sacks
- Daniels (2nd): 87-for-106 (82.%), 235.8 total YPG, 7 TD (four rushing) & 1 INT, 9 sacks
- Maye (3rd): 90-for-136 (66.2%), 271 total YPG, 8 TD (one rushing) & 5 INT, 11 sacks
- Penix (8th): 85-for-142 (59.9%), 266.8 total YPG, 6 TD (two rushing) & 3 INT, 4 sacks
- McCarthy (10th): 58-for-108 (53.7%), 200.5 total YPG, 7 TD (two rushing) & 6 INT, 15 sacks
- Nix (12th): 83-for-138 (60.1%), 192.5 total YPG, 3 TD (two rushing) & 4 INT, 4 sacks
Check out everything Solak learned from Week 10, and is thinking moving forward, here.
Valuable veteran
Like a dog and a man, a tight end is a quarterback's best friend.
And Minnesota has a really good veteran one in T.J. Hockenson who ought to be a high-percentage outlet for McCarthy. Yet, in the four games McCarthy has played, Hockenson has 12 targets combined.
He's caught eight of them (66.7 percent) for 46 yards (5.8 avg.) and one touchdown.
That usage prompted Mark Craig of the Minnesota Star Tribune on Monday to ask O'Connell about Hockenson's involvement "at a time when his young QB needs his elite tight end security blanket."
The coach agreed with Craig: "There's no excuse. We've got to get T.J. involved in the game more," O'Connell said. "We need those plays that have been a huge part of our offense since we acquired him."
"Huge part" should be bolded, italicized and underlined.
In his first 25 games as a Viking, arriving via a mid-season trade with Detroit three years ago and until he suffered a season-ending knee injury late in 2023 against his former team, Hockenson had 155 catches on 213 targets for 1,479 yards and eight TDs. That's the most receptions and targets in a player's initial 25 games with Minnesota (Justin Jefferson ranks No. 2 in both categories with 143 catches on 204 looks).
The 28-year-old, a Pro Bowl selection in 2020 and 2022, has played a key role too – just not in the manner he or anyone watching is accustomed to. Hockenson has helped McCarthy mainly by sticking in the core of the formation as a blocker. Take for instance, his deployment in Week 10 against Baltimore.
Hockenson swapped running routes for pass pro on six plays versus the Ravens, matching his highwater mark for pass-blocking opps in a game during his time with the Vikings, according to Pro Football Focus.
A handful of factors are at play regarding Hockenson's overall decrease in receiving volume this season: 1) A rash of injuries along the o-line early in the year promoted Hockenson's value as a blocker; 2) The recent absence of Josh Oliver, a stupendous blocker, has thrust the sure-handed Hockenson into a larger chipping role; 3) Minnesota's propensity for penalties has put the offense in unfavorable situations; and 4) McCarthy's gaze is awfully deep. He's averaging 10.9 air yards per attempt based on Next Gen Stats data. No other quarterback in the NFL with a minimum of 100 passes has an average in the double digits.
Specific to Sunday's 27-19 defeat, Hockenson might have made catches on four passes that were batted away at the line of scrimmage, per O'Connell, and his target share suffered because of EIGHT false starts.
"The biggest thing is T.J. is a major part of what we do, but a couple of the false start penalties he was the primary [target] on those more manageable D&Ds," O'Connell said, referring to downs and distances.
Craig concluded the following:
Nothing messes up manageable D&Ds quite like eight false starts in the final three quarters. The Vikings had five first-and-10s become first-and-15. With that comes the need for longer completions to wideouts and extra protection duties for Hockenson. But, as O'Connell himself admitted, there are no excuses. If Hockenson is making elite tight end money, feed him like one. It's one of the easiest ways along with a running game — not exactly a strength of the Vikings — to keep McCarthy from [feeling overwhelmed].
"Quarterback is such a rhythmic thing," O'Connell said. "Seeing the ball go through the net can help."
Historically, targeting Hockenson is like stroking a free throw.
Read Craig's commentary on the topic here.

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