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Lunchbreak: PFF Takes a Look at 'Big Time Throws' by J.J. McCarthy

Dec 16, 2025 at 11:44 AM

Rob Kleifield

Editorial Assistant

The more you know: Analytics website Pro Football Focus defines a "Big Time Throw" as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown farther down the field and/or into a tighter window.

The more you know: J.J. McCarthy has the best big-time throw percentage among starting quarterbacks.

No hyperbole. McCarthy's 7.2 BTT% sits atop PFF's chart and is tied with MVP candidate Matthew Stafford of the L.A. Rams for the highest mark. Stafford owns 36 BTTs on 493 dropbacks, and McCarthy 16 on 246.

It's a stat that illustrates accuracy, arm strength and a fearlessness in attacking defenses.

Nick Akridge of PFF on Tuesday explored McCarthy's tantalizing skill set, which has really come into focus in his past two starts, an efficient 31-point win against Washington and a dynamic 34-26 victory at Dallas.

The latter performance earned McCarthy his top single-game grade (89.7) so far and ranked him third for his position in Week 15. With a 78.4 mark the game prior, McCarthy is the No. 4 graded QB in that span.

Akridge wrote the following:

Even when things weren't clicking earlier in the season, McCarthy never shied away from pushing the ball downfield. Entering Week 14, he ranked fourth among all quarterbacks in big-time throw rate at 6.6%. …

There's no denying the pressure on McCarthy. The Vikings went all-in on him as their franchise quarterback this offseason, and the early returns were uneven. But development was always going to take time, and over the past few weeks, the confidence and decisiveness have clearly shown up on tape.

McCarthy raised his BTT% with a trio of releases on Sunday Night Football that crystallized many of the traits that made him the No. 10 overall selection in 2024 and are the basis of belief in him going forward.

On the first of his three BTTs, McCarthy faked a handoff, rolled to his left, flipped his body into a passing stance and threaded a line drive to Jalen "Speedy" Nailor. McCarthy made the throw with two defenders closing in on him, and it found Nailor for a 20-yard TD on a corner route versus Cowboys CB DaRon Bland.

The other two big-timers didn't net points per se, but they showcased McCarthy's willingness to let it fly.

Early in the second quarter at "Jerry World," the 22-year-old took a shotgun snap, drifted away from quick pressure applied by Cowboys DE Jadeveon Clowney off the right side of the offensive line, and dialed up a 58-yard strike to Jordan Addison. The pass traveled 52.5 yards in the air per Next Gen Stats.

Last but definitely not least, McCarthy lasered a pass to T.J. Hockenson up the seam for a 29-yard gain late in the third frame. The connection sparked the possession Minnesota used to go ahead 24-23 with about 16 minutes remaining in the game. Head Coach Kevin O'Connell addressed it unprompted afterward, labeling it "a spectacular throw," and McCarthy identified it as his favorite one of the evening.

"It was a tight Cover 2 coverage, kind of pseudo-quarters," McCarthy said. "But just playing on time, in rhythm, trusting what I see, being decisive and seeing the ball come out exactly the way I wanted to — that was pretty cool. But he made a tremendous catch, like, if you ask him and have him walk you through what that ball was looking like in those lights, it's pretty cool." (T.J. told J.J. that it was flickering.)

In a follow-up response, O'Connell noted McCarthy's placement was "surgical" and the revolutions on the pass created a "runner's ball" for Hockenson that allowed him to dive forward for a few extra yards.

You can read Akridge's article, which includes clips of the plays and delves deeper into each throw, here.

Extra points

Less thinking, more doing.

It's hardly a secret that a quieted mind has been central to McCarthy's ascension the past two weeks.

That's one of five topics discussed by Mark Craig of the Minnesota Star Tribune on Monday afternoon, along with Justin Jefferson's special intangibles, Ryan Wright's stellar punting, Will Reichard's possible crowning as the kicker to beat, and the club's commitment to compete even without a postseason bid.

Starting with "Jets" because he was targeted eight times Sunday (his most since Week 11) and caught a TD nullified by a pre-snap penalty, Craig believes McCarthy (and the team by virtue) should be thankful for Jefferson's patience and understanding — and "everything else that a typical star wide receiver isn't."

Craig noted that when it was a 14-14 contest, Jefferson was "blocking like a left tackle on a running play."

It was the latest in a line of examples of Jefferson doing all the right things amidst a down season for him, statistically, and the offense as a whole. And it reinforced another one of Craig's five takeaways.

Minnesota can improve beyond this year by playing hard instead of tanking. Craig offered his thoughts:

Some are upset the Vikings won in Dallas hours after they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The rest of us saw more long-term good in building some organizational confidence while not looking like the 53 Stooges. After going down 7-0 following an early interception, the Vikings played some perfect complementary football to tie the score. Wright struck a 65-yard punt that was downed by wide receiver Tai Felton at the Dallas 3-yard line. The defense forced a three-and-out. Punt returner Myles Price fair caught a punt in traffic at the Vikings 47. Two plays and one boneheaded Dallas horse collar penalty later, the Vikings tied the score at 7. A meaningless win? Hardly. McCarthy is 4-4 as a starter. The Vikings played a Cowboys team in playoff mode and won on the road in prime time. And they did it while raising their record to 6-22 while losing the turnover battle under O'Connell.

Check out the rest of Craig's comments, including a close-up of two Pro Bowl-worthy specialists, here.