The Vikings have emerged as this year's last unbeaten team thanks in large part to a defensive identity built on a historic blitz rate (Minnesota leads the league at a 70.8% clip, per Next Gen Stats). To put it in quick perspective, the second-highest blitz percentage in the NFL this season (Washington at 42.6%), is only a couple of percentage points lower than the rate at which Minnesota has blitzed under Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores in his first three seasons combined (44.9%).

How will the Lions (4-2) counter that potential amount of duress? By leaning on a quarterback who has remained composed week in and week out and an offense that isn't afraid to take risks, especially late in games.

While Jared Goff hasn't faced the blitz much this season (Buffalo has had the highest rate against him at 55% in Week 2), the Detroit QB has been able to thrive in those scenarios. According to NFL Media Research, Goff owns the second-highest passer rating against the blitz at 123.3 (among QBs with six starts this season). He's also completed 70 percent of his passes for 605 yards and thrown six touchdowns against zero interceptions. Goff's touchdown-to-interception ratio of 14:0 this season is tied for the most through the first six games of a season, joining Russell Wilson with Seattle in 2019.

The Lions success on offense nearly mirrors that of the Vikings defense. Through seven weeks, Detroit leads the NFL in passing yards per game (282.3) and first downs per game (24.7). The Lions also rank second in total yards (avg. 397.3) and scoring (30.7 points per contest), and fifth in total yards per play (5.99) and red zone efficiency (70.4%).

Detroit's willingness to take offensive risks has been evident since Head Coach Dan Campbell's arrival in 2021. After ranking in the top 3 in fourth-down attempts in each of his first three seasons (41 in 2021, 37 in 2022 and 40 in 2023), Campbell's group is currently fifth in the league in the category this year at 13 attempts. The Lions have converted eight of those tries, including seven on pass plays (10 attempts).

While Minnesota has largely been successful against Detroit (the Vikings lead the all-time series 82-45-2), recent history suggests the game might go down to the wire. Since 2021, six of the 10 matchups between the two teams have been decided by a one-score margin. Of those six, four of them featured a go-ahead score with less than a minute remaining, including two on the game's final play.

Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:

Lions 23, Vikings 13 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

The undefeated Vikings face a tough road game here against Detroit. The Lions offense against the Minnesota defense will be a treat to watch. Jared Goff is playing at a high level right now, but Minnesota's defense is the best in the league in terms of scoring. The Vikings offense is limited, but the Detroit defense has had major problems. But they were better last week, which I think carries over. Lions take it.

Lions 25, Vikings 22 – Bill Bender, Sporting News

This is a fun NFC North matchup. The Vikings defense continues to dominate, but Detroit's offense presents a new challenge. Jared Goff averages 259.3 passing yards per game with six TDs and no interceptions at home, and Jahmyr Gibbs continues to put up huge numbers. Detroit's defense also improved with the return of safety Brian Branch. The Lions hand the Vikings their first loss, but it will be tight.

Lions 23, Vikings 20 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News

The Vikings have dominated with defense and are getting away with little offense. They will face a different kind of test on the road. Jared Goff can handle blitzes well with his top wide receivers and tight ends. Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions running game can also get some wins at the line of scrimmage. The Lions defense also carries some positive vibes after slowing down the Packers.

0 of 5 experts pick the Vikings, NFL.com

Analysis from NFL.com's Gennaro Filice: How is Jared Goff against the blitz? That's the obvious question for any quarterback facing the NFL's most audacious defensive coordinator. Brian Flores dials up the blitz on a mind-bending 70.8% of pass rushes. That's the highest rate in the league by a mile, per Next Gen Stats, with no other team even reaching 44%. In last week's 16-10 win over Indianapolis, Minnesota sent extra rushers on a staggering 85.2% of Daniel Jones' dropbacks, racking up 15 QB pressures and four sacks. Expect Flores to scale back from that season-high blitz rate in Detroit. For one thing, the DC has immense respect for this particular QB, who's gone 4-2 against his Vikings defense in their time as division rivals.

"Command of the offense, cadence, his ability to just extract information from the defense with shifts, motions, cadence, and his ability to gather that information and make the correct reads, throws ... is high level," Flores said of Goff on Tuesday. "Statistically, he's been one of the best quarterbacks -- not even statistically, period, he's been one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League over a good amount of time.

"He's seen all of the blitzes -- he's seen them all. I think he's one of the best in the league, and they've got a great skill group, and he knows how to distribute the ball to all of them. This is a major challenge -- certainly keeping me up the last couple nights."

Sleeplessness makes sense here. Against the blitz this season, Goff has sparkling production, ranking among the league leaders in passer rating (123.3), completion percentage (70.0), success rate (52.7%) and EPA/dropback (0.25). I think he weathers Flores' storm of pass rushers and hands the Vikings their first loss.

1 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report

Bleacher Report analysis Moe Moton: Don't let the Vikings undefeated record fool you. They're good but not dominant. Minnesota beat the Miami Dolphins 15-10 in Week 4 and just squeaked by the Indianapolis Colts 16-10 last week.

Kyler Murray has been inconsistent in five outings, throwing for three touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 162.4 passing yards per game. He won't keep pace with the Lions second-ranked scoring offense, even if Detroit scores only 21-24 points.

At worst, this is another push against the spread in a divisional matchup for the Lions.

Bleacher Report analysis Wes O'Donnell: The Vikings may be one of the ugliest all-around 6-0 teams we've seen; averaging just over 20 points per game in today's NFL is rarely a blueprint for success. The defense, though, holds opponents to a meager 12.3 points per game, and Minnesota leads the league in turnover differential.

Jared Goff has yet to throw an interception this season for a Lions team that ranks behind only the Bills in points per game. Something is going to break in this one, or it'll be ugly, and I'm taking the points, leaning defense over offense.

3 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB

1 of 11 experts pick the Vikings, ESPN

1 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic

Thoughts from The Athletic's J.J. Bailey: I knew I could count on Chad Graff to be the one to pick the Minnesota Vikings. He's a true maniac, and as such, respects a fellow maniac. And brother, Brian Flores is that maniac.

If you're trying to explain what the Vikings defense is to someone who doesn't watch football, try this: We used to believe blitzing was a risk, and it needed to be calculated. Flores figured out that if his defense takes the risk every time, the odds of them hurting the opponent are way better than the opponent hurting them. Now, instead of offenses trying to guess the one down in every four in which extra rushers are coming, they are trying to guess the one time they aren't — and end up playing chess against themselves.

Minnesota leads the league in blitz rate at north of 70 percent. No other team in the league blitzes at even a 50 percent rate. It's maximum chaos, maximum times. That the Vikings are undefeated and lead the NFC North can hold only if this defense stays historically great (or the offense gets considerably better). Heading into Week 8, there's no chance Detroit feels comfortable about this game. Flores' defense is a storm, and it has consistently shattered ships upon the rocks.

The good news is that Jahmyr Gibbs is a perfect weapon to deploy against over-eager defensive fronts. The bad news is that using Gibbs to such an effect means leaving Jared Goff without running back pass protection for much of the game. This is the Catch-22 Flores creates, and Goff has looked sharp enough this year that the other six experts believe Detroit can overcome it. But the Detroit defense is still wobbly on its feet and I, like Chad, find it hard to pick against the storm.

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