Skip to main content
Advertising

News | Minnesota Vikings – vikings.com

Presented by

NFL Expert Picks: Forecast for Vikings at Saints Has Variance

2026 DIGI Expert Picks Week 5

There are certain venues across the NFL that carry an immediate, unmistakable weight the moment you walk through the tunnel. For the Minnesota Vikings, traveling to New Orleans has always meant stepping into one of the most hostile environments in football.

Don't let the city's nickname fool you: the Big Easy is anything but that, especially in recent memory for Minnesota. Although the Vikings possess a winning record (10-9) when visiting New Orleans, the Saints have had Minnesota's number as of late in the Caesars Superdome. New Orleans has claimed four of the past six meetings with the Vikings as the designated "home team"; Minnesota's lone "road" victories during that stretch occurred in the playoffs (2019 Wild Card round) and overseas (Week 4 of the 2022 season in London).

So when was the last time the Vikings left Louisiana with a true regular-season road win? I'll give you a quick hint: Minnesota Head Coach Kevin O'Connell was a rookie.

If you guessed 2008 (more specifically, 18 years ago from this past Tuesday), you are correct. Minnesota isn't the only one looking to rewrite unwanted history, however; after dropping its first two home games of the season, New Orleans is hoping to avoid an 0-3 home start for the first time since 1995.

To do so, the Saints will lean heavily on a prolific passing attack that ranks among the league's most productive, capable of generating chunk yardage through the air when they find a rhythm. But finding that rhythm will require solving perhaps the NFL's most difficult test: a Vikings defense that is producing at a historic level. Minnesota leads the way in nearly every defensive statistical category thanks to an astronomical blitz rate (70.5%) and a success rate of 69.8% (the sixth-best mark by any NFL team through four weeks since 2000).

Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:

Vikings 24, Saints 17 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

The Saints looked awful in their loss to the Falcons on Monday night and now face an undefeated Vikings team. That Minnesota defense is special. The Saints are really banged up on defense. Maybe Kyler Murray can get it going against them. I think he does.

Saints 23, Vikings 19 – Bill Bender, Sporting News

The Vikings are 4-0 and road favorites against a resurgent New Orleans offense coming off a short week. Will Justin Jefferson, a St. Rose, Louisiana, native, return from an ankle injury? The Saints are 1-4 as a home underdog under second-year coach Kellen Moore, which is a concern heading into this game. We're still taking the home team — especially if Minnesota has to settle for field goals.

View Vikings practice photos ahead of the Week 5 matchup against the Saints.

Saints 23, Vikings 20 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News

The Vikings cannot find offensive rhythm and consistency, and there's potential Justin Jefferson will miss his return to the state of Louisiana. Minnesota's defense has taken advantage of some weaker offenses. New Orleans is not that with Tyler Shough chucking in the Superdome for Kellen Moore. The Vikings are overdue to be nipped, and it happens to take them from the undefeated ranks.

2 of 5 experts pick the Vikings, NFL.com

Analysis from NFL.com's Brooke Cersosimo: Minnesota has got to find some offense because field goals aren't going to cut it every week. Despite how poor that unit has been, the Vikings have the edge against the Saints defense in overall passing and rushing efficiency, per NFL Pro. Veteran Aaron Jones, Sr., has been a boon, averaging 108.3 scrimmage yards per game since Jordan Mason was placed on IR after Week 1, while Kyler Murray slowly finds his footing. Getting Justin Jefferson (ankle) back would certainly help Murray in that process. The Saints underwhelmed on all fronts against the Falcons, giving up a 40-burger and struggling offensively. Things won't get easier for Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough. Brian Flores' defense has blitzed on 70.5% of dropbacks this season and generated a 46.8% pressure rate, both the highest marks since 2018 (per NGS). Shough has recorded 5.7 yards per attempt against the blitz (seventh-lowest in the NFL) and 8.1 yards per attempt against pressure (third-highest); most notably, he hasn't faced a blitz rate above 38.5% of his dropbacks in any game he has started in his career. The second-year QB faces an uphill climb, and it doesn't help that Alvin Kamara's dealing with a back injury. It certainly feels like Minnesota has been playing with fire  — eking out weird wins by the week — but consider this another good-timing matchup with a foe that's searching for some answers on multiple fronts. The Vikings improve to 5-0 heading into the bye week.

Look back on photos from past games between the Vikings and the Saints.

3 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report

Bleacher Report analysis Kris Knox: I don't know if the Minnesota Vikings are actually any better with Kyler Murray at quarterback than they were with Carson Wentz. It certainly won't help that Justin Jefferson may miss his second full game with an ankle injury.

What concerns me about the Saints, though, is their inability to run the ball effectively and consistently (30th in rushing yards and YPC). This means a lot of pressure will be placed on second-year quarterback Tyler Shough. I'm a big fan of Shough, but I expect him to struggle against Brian Flores' defense.

Bleacher Report analysis Wes O'Donnell: Let's look past the fact that the Vikings defense is only surrendering 12.75 points per game. I'm making this one all about the Saints.

It's not often a team should be "excited" to welcome a 4-0 opponent into its house, but New Orleans should be an exception this weekend. The undefeated Vikings, while deserving of their unbeaten mark, do not do anything particularly well offensively.

Since their 39-point outburst in Week 1, they're averaging just 15 points per game. The Saints were just pummeled on Monday Night Football for 205 yards and five touchdowns on the ground and are allowing 147.8 rushing yards and a league-worst 32 points per game; this game couldn't come at a better time. That cannot — it will not — happen again. Back-to-back home games cannot go to waste for a team trying to turn the corner of relevance.

The Saints need to capitalize on this matchup to show they can stay competitive.

6 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB

8 of 11 experts pick the Vikings, ESPN

6 of 9 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic

Series Notes

The Vikings and Saints have met 38 times in their history, with Minnesota possessing a 25-13 lead in the series. Minnesota has won five of the past seven matchups dating back to 2017, including the two most recent encounters (27-19 in 2023 and 28-25 in London in 2022) and twice in the postseason; the Minneapolis Miracle in January 2018 and Kyle Rudolph's walk-off touchdown two years later will forever be seared into the minds of Vikings (and Saints) fans.

091726_NFL+_FY26_Affiliate_Club_MIN_1920x1080_V1

Watch Vikings Games on NFL+

NFL+ brings you LIVE local and primetime games on mobile, NFL RedZone, NFL Network, live audio and more - all in one place. For a limited time, receive 20% off an annual NFL+ plan!

View the Vikings 2026 Schedule.

See future opponents for the Vikings.

Download the official Vikings App.

See more about the 2028 NFL Draft in Minnesota.

Advertising